Tag: March Madness

Bracketology for the Chronically Delusional

Bracketology for the Chronically Delusional

(LEXINGTON, KY.) – Every March, millions of Americans suddenly become experts on college basketball.

It starts innocently enough. We open the bracket. We glance at a few analytics charts. Maybe we listen to a podcast or two. Suddenly we’re throwing around phrases like adjusted offensive efficiency and KenPom rankings like we’re assistant coaches on Coach Mark Pope’s staff.

Then we submit our bracket.

Two hours later, a 13-seed beats a 4-seed and the whole thing looks like it was filled out by my Boston Terrier walking across the keyboard.

And yet every year we try again. Hope springs eternal—especially in Lexington, where Kentucky fans used to treat March Madness the way British royalty treats coronations: haughty, entitled, and patronizingly supercilious.

Back then, filling out a bracket meant one thing: figuring out who Kentucky would beat in the Final Four.

Now?

Now we’re a 7-seed squinting nervously at Santa Clara, while national analysts talk about the Wildcats the way zoologists talk about endangered species.

“Interesting program… historically dominant… but rarely seen in the wild anymore.”

Nothing humbles a fan base quite like hearing its team described in the past tense.

Still, the beauty of March Madness is that nobody really knows anything. Not the analysts. Not the algorithms. And certainly not the guy writing a blog called Huang’s Whinings.

So let’s dive into this year’s bracket and pretend we do.

The East: Blueblood Traffic Jam

The East region looks like a family reunion of college basketball aristocracy.

Duke. Kansas. UConn. Michigan State.

If you’ve been watching the sport for more than five minutes, you’ve probably seen all of them cutting down nets at some point.

Duke sits at the top of the region and the analytics people absolutely love them. Their efficiency numbers are ridiculous. Their roster is loaded. Their freshmen probably have NBA agents lurking somewhere in the parking lot already.

Which means they’re a trendy pick to win it all.

That’s usually the moment Duke fans should start sweating.

Even with a couple of injuries to key players, the Blue Devils probably survive the early rounds, although I do like 12-seed Northern Iowa knocking off St. John’s. Every tournament needs one mid-major that shoots like the rim is the size of a hula hoop. And Rick Pitino needs his ego deflated before his head expands another inch.

Kansas lurks. UConn lurks. But eventually talent wins.

Prediction: Duke survives the East.

The West: Where Brackets Go to Die

Arizona headlines the West region, and on paper the Wildcats look terrific.

Which immediately makes me suspicious.

Because the West also features Gonzaga, Purdue, and about six teams capable of blowing up America’s office pools.

First upset alert: 14-seed Kennesaw State over Gonzaga.

Every March there’s a moment when a national power suddenly realizes the other team’s guards are faster and hungrier. This could be that moment.

Then there’s 10-seed Missouri knocking off Miami, which I’m predicting purely because Dennis Gates looks so good in a suit.

Arizona probably survives the chaos, but not before giving their fans a mild cardiac episode.

Prediction: Arizona wins the West.

The Midwest: Kentucky’s Nervous Corner

Now we arrive at the portion of the bracket that has Kentucky fans clutching their bourbon glasses and rosary beads simultaneously.

Kentucky vs. Santa Clara.

Twenty years ago, that matchup would have produced a polite chuckle in Lexington. Now every national analyst seems to be whispering the same sentence:

“Santa Clara is a very dangerous mid-major.”

Translation: Kentucky better not mess this up. Santa Clara shoots well, moves the ball, and has absolutely nothing to lose — which makes them exactly the type of team that ruins blueblood reputations.

Still, I think Kentucky escapes the first round.

Not comfortably.

Not convincingly.

But enough.

After that, things get tricky.

I’ve got 11-seed SMU upsetting Tennessee, mostly because Tennessee never makes it past the Elite Eight. This year—to the delight of BBN—the Volunteers go out in the first round. We can all dream, can’t we?

Contrary to popular opinion, Kentucky’s real problem isn’t Santa Clara or Iowa State or Virgina for that matter. It’s Michigan. The Wolverines are balanced, disciplined, and unfortunately very good.

Prediction: Michigan beats Kentucky in the Elite Eight and wins the Midwest.

If you’re laughing hysterically at that prediction, I suggest referring back to the title of this blog.

The South: The Rock Fight Region

Florida sits atop this region as the defending national champion. But Houston is lurking like the final boss in a video game. The Cougars defend everything, rebound everything, and turn games into ugly wrestling matches where nobody scores for three minutes at a time.

That style travels well in March. And everybody suddenly loves Kelvin Sampson. “Forgive and forget” they say.

Meanwhile, I like 12-seed McNeese over Vanderbilt as another early upset. Guards win tournament games, and McNeese has them.

Eventually, however, the region comes down to Florida and Houston. And I’m taking the Cougars to ruin Todd Golden’s repeat.

Prediction: Houston wins the South.

The Final Four

After two weeks of buzzer beaters, busted brackets, and emotional trauma, we arrive in Indianapolis with four survivors:

  • Duke
  • Arizona
  • Michigan
  • Houston

Michigan edges Arizona in a tight one while Duke overwhelms Houston with too much Cameron Boozer.

As much as I hate to say it, Duke takes down Michigan for their sixth national championship.

Prediction: Duke wins the national championship.

Final Thought

Of course, everything I just wrote will probably be wrong by Thursday afternoon. A 13-seed will shock someone. A mid-major will become America’s darling. And somewhere in America a Kentucky fan will stare at their destroyed bracket and mutter the same phrase we’ve all said for decades:

“Next year… we’ll do much better.”

Which, if you’re a Kentucky fan, isn’t just optimism.

It’s tradition.

And occasionally… it’s delusion.

This article was originally written for distribution through Nolan Group Media publications.

Dr. John Huang is a retired orthodontist, military veteran, and award-winning author. Currently serving as a columnist for Nolan Group Media, he invites readers to follow him on social media @KYHuangs. Explore his latest, Whining for Posterity, and all his books at Amazon.

We Finally Got No. 9

We Finally Got No. 9

(LEXINGTON, KY.) – Since the beginning of last summer, Kentucky fans have been speaking reverently about the number nine.

Not the number nine as in a seed line. Not the number nine as in a placement somewhere in the middle of the SEC pack. No, this was the other nine—the one that was supposed to be hanging up in the rafters of Rupp Arena. The mythical, glorious ninth national championship Big Blue Nation has been chasing ever since 2012.

Instead, the Wildcats are headed to Nashville this week as the No. 9 seed in the SEC Tournament.

Nine—not quite the number anyone had in mind.

And they’ll begin their postseason journey at the ungodly hour of 12:30 p.m. Wednesday, which is the kind of tip time usually reserved for accountants on their lunch break or retired orthodontists dribbling soup down the sides of their mouth.

In other words, not exactly prime time in the Bluegrass.

It’s also the first time in program history Kentucky has entered the SEC Tournament as a nine seed. History is still being made in Lexington. Just not the kind they used to celebrate.

But before we rush to judgment—and Big Blue Nation is never in a rush to judge anything—let’s consider the great universal balm of sports misery:

What if.

What if Kentucky had simply stayed healthy?

Basketball seasons tend to unravel when the trainer’s office starts looking like rush hour at the DMV. Kentucky lost Jaland Lowe to a shoulder, Kam Williams to a foot, while Jayden Quaintance’s ACL is apparently still swelling as we speak.

Take away three of the top players on just about any roster in America and see how that works out. The answer, more often than not, looks suspiciously like a No. 9 seed playing Wednesday afternoon.

What if Kentucky didn’t spend half the season digging out of first-half holes?

Against high-major opponents this year, the Wildcats have trailed at halftime in 15 of 24 games. That’s not a strategy so much as a lifestyle.

Falling behind by double digits early has become a recurring theme, followed by spirited second-half rallies that often come up just short—like a movie where the hero saves the day but still misses out on the girl he’s chasing.

What if Rupp Arena were still Rupp Arena?

Once upon a time, Missouri and Georgia walking into Lexington meant exactly one thing: an opponent shaking in their boots resulting in a comfortable twenty-point Kentucky win and fans planning their postgame dinner reservations by halftime.

This season, those games turned into home losses. Missouri. Georgia. For God’s sake. The Wildcats used to treat Rupp Arena like a fortress. Now it’s starting to feel more like a welcoming station—pillaged by traditional SEC doormats and also-rans.

Kentucky lost three home games last season. They lost four this year. Times change.

What if Trent Noah rediscovered his jumper—and Mo Dioubate discovered one in the first place?

Noah arrived in Lexington with the reputation of a marksman. At times this season, his patented jumper has been missing in action. He didn’t hit a single field goal in the entire month of February.

Dioubate, meanwhile, plays basketball like a bull in a china shop. You cannot fault the effort. The motor never stops. But when he decides he’s going to the basket, he is absolutely going to the basket. Whether the ball goes with him is sometimes a secondary consideration.

And yet here we are.

Kentucky finished the regular season 19–12 overall and 10–8 in the SEC, which might sound respectable until you remember where this program lives historically. It’s only the fourth time since 1990 the Wildcats have finished with fewer than 20 regular-season wins.

For most programs, 19 victories is a solid year. At Kentucky, it feels like a census report documenting population decline.

And the broader numbers paint an even darker picture. The Wildcats haven’t won the SEC regular season in six years. They haven’t won the SEC Tournament in seven years. Since the COVID shutdown, Kentucky has managed just four total postseason wins. Humiliating losses to Saint Peter’s and Oakland during that period simply add fuel to the fire.

For a program that once measured success in Final Fours and national titles, those realities land with a thud. The last national championship came in 2012. The last Final Four appearance was in 2015. Those seasons now feel like old photographs from a happier time—still vivid, but increasingly distant and fading fast.

And yet Big Blue Nation remains what it has always been: loud, passionate, and emotionally invested to an unhealthy degree. Some fans are still hopeful. They look at the injuries, the close losses, the flashes of brilliance, and they’re convinced Mark Pope is building something that just needs a little time to mature. March has a funny way of rewriting stories. Kentucky has lived that miracle before. Fans here know better than anyone how quickly a season can pivot.

Others in BBN are far less patient. A growing segment of the fan base already sounds like it’s preparing to run Pope out of town, hammering home the uncomfortable reality of what the numbers say: the losses at Rupp, the missed opportunities, the long droughts between championships and Final Fours that once seemed automatic, and—most importantly—the lack of elite recruits coming to the rescue.

That’s the strange tension surrounding this team as it heads to Nashville as the No. 9 seed—an outcome nobody predicted when fans were dreaming about the other No. 9 last summer.

Maybe the Wildcats catch fire.

Maybe the shots start falling.

Maybe the defense locks in.

Maybe Wednesday at 12:30 becomes the unlikely first chapter in the wonderful story Mark Pope keeps promising.

Stranger things have happened in March.

…Just maybe not starting from nine.

This article was originally written for distribution through Nolan Group Media publications.

Dr. John Huang is a retired orthodontist, military veteran, and award-winning author. He currently serves as a columnist for Nolan Group Media and invites readers to follow him on social media @KYHuangs. His latest book is Whining For Posterity, available on Amazon.